A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
